Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Positive sentiment driven by strong historical performance and reduced market uncertainty suggests potential for a price rebound, especially given recent upward momentum.

Bearish Case: Ongoing high volatility and significant put trading volume indicate market skepticism. Economic pressures could lead to lower prices and sustained bearish sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 50% chance of a rebound towards $100 driven by positive sentiment.

2) 30% chance of sideways movement due to continued volatility.

3) 20% chance of decline towards $80 as market conditions sour.

Trading Oracle: Focus on executing a bullish call debit spread by buying the $90 call and selling the $95 call, leveraging current implied volatility and capturing upside potential. With a market probability of success at 74%, this strategy offers a favorable risk-reward profile within a neutral to bullish time outlook.

November 17, 2024