Bullish Case: VAC's strong brand reputation and potential recovery in the travel sector post-pandemic may drive increased demand. Historical price trends suggest a resilience with a high likelihood of rebound, supported by reduced market volatility.

Bearish Case: Persisting economic uncertainties and changing consumer behaviors in the travel sector present challenges. High put option activity signals market skepticism about VAC's near-term performance, merit caution among bullish investors.

Potential Outcomes:

• 60% chance of moderate rebound driven by positive sentiment.
• 25% chance of stagnant price due to ongoing market volatility.
• 15% chance of decline if economic conditions worsen significantly.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish call debit spread by buying the $90 call and selling the $95 call, leveraging high implied volatility. This strategy allows you to capitalize on potential upside while managing risk due to the positive sentiment and historical performance. Aim for a short-term target around $100 with limited downside risk.

December 21, 2024