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VAC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: VAC's improving post-COVID travel prospects and high call volume suggest upside potential. Stable implied volatility and long-term growth bolster optimism.

Bearish Case: Economic pressures and travel sector challenges persist, with VAC still 43.4% below two-year highs. Social skepticism and fluctuating returns add risk.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of recovery to $90 on strong call volume; 25% sideways due to economic headwinds; 15% decline below $80 on macro downturn.

Trading Oracle: Trade bullish call debit spreads by buying $90 calls, selling $95 calls for April 2025 expiration. Profitable with controlled risk on rebound above $90, leveraging moderate implied volatility.

January 17, 2025

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VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VAC

LAC Lithium Americas (0.82)

TS Tenaris S.A. (0.8)

LSCC Lattice Semiconductor (0.8)

TREX TREX Co. (0.8)

APH Amphenol (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VAC

PAY Paymentus (-0.01)

SU Suncor Energy (-0.01)

MAIN Main Street (-0.01)

APO Apollo (0.01)

UBS UBS (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VAC

LLY Lilly(Eli) (-0.65)

EXR Extra Space Storage (-0.66)

MPWR Monolithic Power System (-0.68)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.71)

CALX Calix (-0.73)

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