Bullish Case: With strong historical performance and increasing trading volume in call options, Voya's upward trajectory indicates potential for price appreciation. The upcoming earnings report may catalyze further increases, supported by favorable market conditions.

Bearish Case: The significant implied volatility suggests heightened market uncertainty, with potential price fluctuations around the elections. The market's skepticism might result in a downturn if negative news impacts investor sentiment or earnings miss expectations.

Potential Outcomes:

1. (40%) Sustained bullish momentum post-earnings, driving prices towards $90.

2. (35%) Increased market volatility near elections leads to sharp fluctuations within a $75-$85 range.

3. (15%) Negative investor sentiment results in a decline towards $70.

4. (10%) Unexpected macroeconomic events precipitate a deeper drop below $70.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a bearish short volatility strategy by selling 1 $85 call option and buying 2 $90 call options, capitalizing on high implied volatility and upcoming market events. This strategy allows for a positive edge while minimizing risk against potential downturns. Focus on maintaining short duration to hedge against volatility spikes.

November 08, 2024