VT Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: VT's historical return surface suggests consistent positive outcomes over long periods. Combined with bullish sentiment and low volatility, upward momentum is expected.




Bearish Case: Uncertainty from macroeconomic instability and elevated implied volatility levels indicates potential downside. High put volume could signal investor caution.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Upward trend (50%): Driven by diversification and stable returns.
  • Sideways movement (30%): Stability from low volatility.
  • Downward swing (20%): Triggered by macroeconomic shocks.




Trading Oracle: The Bearish Short Volatility strategy is optimal now given high implied volatility and flat recent price action. Sell ATM call options and buy OTM call options to profit from a potential volatility drop, reducing risk exposure.



April 30, 2025


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock Forecast

VT        Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock











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DGRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DGRO  iShares Core Dividend Growth (0.93)


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Assets with little price relationship to VT



CVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVX  Chevron (-0.01)


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FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VT



ADNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADNT  Adient (-0.6)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.62)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.66)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.67)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.69)









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