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WB Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: WB's price has increased 16% over two months, with strong call option volume suggesting increasing market optimism.



Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny in China and historical negative returns over multi-year periods pose significant downside risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increase due to optimism (30% chance).

2. Price decrease due to regulatory issues (50%).

3. Price stagnation (20%).



Trading Oracle:
Utilize Bearish Long Volatility Strategy. Buy OOTM put options to profit from high implied volatility and regulatory uncertainty. This exploits the volatility surface's insights on potential downward movements and high IV spikes. Protect against adverse regulatory developments impacting price.


March 14, 2025


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WB        Weibo

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DAVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAVE  Dave (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WB


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.0)


CLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLH  Clean Harbors (0.0)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.0)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (0.0)


BA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BA  Boeing (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WB


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (-0.56)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (-0.56)


ASC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASC  Ardmore Shipping (-0.57)


ADBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADBE  Adobe (-0.58)


MYGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MYGN  Myriad Genetics (-0.66)







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