WB Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Despite regulatory challenges, WB has shown a price increase over the past 90 days. Growing user engagement and a bullish risk skew indicate potential for further recovery.




Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and poor historical returns present significant risks. The steepest implied volatility spikes suggest potential for negative price movements.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Regulatory easing leads to a moderate rise (30%).
  • Persisting regulations result in further decline (50%).
  • Market staggers between factors (20%).




Trading Oracle: Exploit high implied volatility with a bearish credit spread by selling $12.5 calls and buying $13.5 calls, expiring in 46 days. This captures premium amid potential stagnation or decline, combining a high probability of profit with adequate edge.



February 12, 2025


Weibo Forecast

WB        Weibo











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TIGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TIGR  UP Fintech (0.6)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WB



PTGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTGX  Protagonist Therapeutics (0.0)


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYND  Beyond Meat (0.0)


OLPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLPX  Olaplex (-0.0)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (0.01)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WB



GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (-0.49)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.51)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.52)


REGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REGN  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-0.6)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.63)









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