Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Strong historical growth and current volatility skew suggests upward price movement in the short term, especially with high options volume in calls indicating positive sentiment.

Bearish Case: Insider selling and high price to book ratio raise concerns over overvaluation, potentially leading to significant price declines if earnings miss expectations.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Market stabilizes with 35% probability, leading to price recovery;

2. Earnings miss with 30% probability resulting in price drop;

3. Continued insider selling impacts share price with 25% probability;

4. Infrastructure projects bolster growth at 10% probability.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying the $40 calls and selling $42.50 calls, expiring January 2025. This strategy takes advantage of historical mean reversion with a potential return of 40% (annualized at 98%) and leverage on implied volatility. Monitor earnings closely for adjustments.

November 14, 2024