How to Interpret Our Models

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Model Correlation:

This is the Pearson Correlation between model predicted % change and actual % change calculated over the last 150 days. Higher (closer to 1) means a more accurate model and lower (closer to -1) means a less accurate model.

Percent Correct (up or down):

This is the percent of the time our models predicted the correct direction of the price (either up or down) over the last 150 days.

Chance of False Correlation:

We run simulations to estimate the % chance that a random model (just guessing) would outperform our given model over the last 150 days. Smaller means better.

Expected Forecast Error:

Our models predict how much prediction error (absolute difference between predicted price and actual price) they expect to have in the future based on past model performance.

Easily evaluate model performance over multiple days. Same-day means that predictions were made before market open trying to predict closing price the same day. 1 day means trying to predict the closing price the next day. Tip: Click and drag charts to zoom in. right click to zoom back out.

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Feedback: [email protected]

* Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.