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SPY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SPY has robust bullish momentum at 81.8% return over five years, stable inflation, and potential Fed rate cuts encouraging growth.



Bearish Case: Implied volatility and flat price action hint at complacency risk. Data discrepancies and geopolitical tensions increase potential for corrections.



Potential Outcomes:
  • SPY uptrend continues with rate cuts: 60% chance.
  • Correction due to persistent inflation: 25% chance.
  • Heightened volatility from geopolitical issues: 15% chance.



Trading Oracle: Deploy bullish debit spreads on SPY, focusing on slightly out-of-the-money calls. Leverage the expected rate cuts and stable volatility. Consider a 2-3 month horizon, with the aim to capitalize on expected gains. Monitor for geopolitical risks, but implied stability supports a positive outlook.


January 22, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (1.0)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (1.0)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.97)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.97)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.01)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.01)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.02)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (-0.02)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.87)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.89)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.9)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.91)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)







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