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SPY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SPY has robust bullish momentum at 81.8% return over five years, stable inflation, and potential Fed rate cuts encouraging growth.



Bearish Case: Implied volatility and flat price action hint at complacency risk. Data discrepancies and geopolitical tensions increase potential for corrections.



Potential Outcomes:
  • SPY uptrend continues with rate cuts: 60% chance.
  • Correction due to persistent inflation: 25% chance.
  • Heightened volatility from geopolitical issues: 15% chance.



Trading Oracle: Deploy bullish debit spreads on SPY, focusing on slightly out-of-the-money calls. Leverage the expected rate cuts and stable volatility. Consider a 2-3 month horizon, with the aim to capitalize on expected gains. Monitor for geopolitical risks, but implied stability supports a positive outlook.


January 22, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY


SPTM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTM  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market (1.0)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (1.0)


ITOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITOT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market (1.0)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (1.0)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.0)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.01)


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (0.01)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.01)


DKNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKNG  DraftKings (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.9)


AMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMN  AMN Healthcare Services (-0.9)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.92)


DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOG  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)







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