SPY Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Despite recent corrections, long-term historical data shows SPY resilience, with potential gains driven by stabilizing geopolitical tensions and robust corporate earnings.




Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility suggests continued market uncertainty, especially given backwardation, geopolitical tensions, and potential economic disruptions, posing downswing risks.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable economic recovery and rate stability could push SPY to $550 (40% probability).
  • Geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures lead to volatility, keeping SPY below $500 (30% probability).
  • Steady rate decisions and strong corporate earnings help SPY remain around $525 (30% probability).



April 05, 2025


 SPDR S&P 500 Forecast

SPY         SPDR S&P 500











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY



SPTM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTM  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market (1.0)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (1.0)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.99)


XLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLG  Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 (0.99)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.98)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY



KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.0)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.0)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.01)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY



XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.72)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.72)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.75)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.75)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.75)









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