AP Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AP's return surface indicates potential for substantial long-term gains with mean reversion, especially over multi-year periods, showing higher likelihood of positive returns.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility, cyclical steel market nature, and historical underperformance suggest significant downside risk, particularly if economic conditions weaken.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance of stabilization around $2.5 with moderate volatility;
  • 25% drop below $2 if negative sentiment and economic pressures persist;
  • 25% chance of rebound to $3.0 with positive market catalysts.



March 18, 2025


Ampco-Pittsburgh Forecast

AP        Ampco-Pittsburgh











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DRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRI  Darden Restaurants (0.67)


CPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPS  Cooper-Standard (0.65)


AAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAL  American Airlines (0.61)


BYRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYRN  Byrna (0.61)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AP



ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.0)


PBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBR  Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras (0.0)


BEKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEKE  KE (-0.0)


PLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLAB  Photronics (0.0)


XLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLP  Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AP



NXPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NXPI  NXP Semiconductors (-0.58)


ASC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASC  Ardmore Shipping (-0.64)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.66)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.67)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (-0.68)









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