Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Embraer's continued innovation in eVTOLs and expanding market share signal strong growth potential, especially if recent aircraft deliveries and contracts materialize positively, potentially yielding investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Intensifying competition, ongoing financial pressure, and negative impacts from regulatory hurdles could stifle Embraer's growth, leading to potential declines in stock performance and market sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued E-Jet demand growth due to airline recovery (60%);

2) Serious delays in Eve project result in further losses (30%);

3) Strengthening global partnerships boosting military sales (45%).

Trading Oracle: Given the current high implied volatility and market uncertainty, consider a bullish strategy with long call spreads, like buying November $35 calls and selling $40 calls, to capture potential upside while managing risk. Focus on mid-term gains as market sentiment stabilizes.

October 29, 2024