GHM Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: GHM benefits from strong historical mean reversion and robust sector demand. Elevated implied volatility suggests potential upward movement.




Bearish Case: High GHM implied volatility and low liquidity signal potential for price declines. Historical trends indicate possible downside risk.




Potential Outcomes: 1. Continued growth in aerospace (60%).
Significant sector demand supports price gain.
2. Economic downturn (25%).
Headwinds reduce demand, impacting pricing.
3. Competitive pressures (15%).
Increased competition squeezes margins.



May 17, 2025


Graham Forecast

GHM        Graham











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GHM



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SAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAM  Boston Beer Co. (0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GHM



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UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.62)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.64)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.66)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.69)









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