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FEZ Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: With European economic recovery and favorable historical returns, there's potential for FEZ to gain modestly. The relative stability in implied volatility supports a cautiously optimistic outlook.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and significant put trading volume indicate bearish sentiment. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic instability could drive FEZ lower, as warned by previous cautious forecasts.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 35% chance of flat performance due to persistent uncertainty.
  • 30% chance of 5% decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions.
  • 25% chance of moderate gain driven by positive EU data.
  • 10% probability of extreme volatility reacting to unexpected events.



Trading Oracle:
  • With implied volatility slightly higher than market levels, implement a Bearish Short Volatility strategy. This leverages market caution reflected in the volatility term structure.


April 26, 2025


SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 Forecast

FEZ        SPDR EURO Stoxx 50

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FEZ


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (0.82)


EUFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EUFN  BTC iShares MSCI Europe Financials (0.69)


GROY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GROY  Gold Royalty (0.63)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (0.62)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FEZ


BFLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BFLY  Butterfly Network (-0.0)


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (-0.0)


DGRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DGRO  iShares Core Dividend Growth (-0.01)


FAST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAST  Fastenal (-0.01)


TJX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TJX  TJX Companies (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FEZ


RPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPD  Rapid7 (-0.56)


EA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EA  Electronic Arts (-0.57)


FLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLR  Fluor (-0.61)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.64)


FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (-0.65)







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