FEZ Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: With European economic recovery and favorable historical returns, there's potential for FEZ to gain modestly. The relative stability in implied volatility supports a cautiously optimistic outlook.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and significant put trading volume indicate bearish sentiment. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic instability could drive FEZ lower, as warned by previous cautious forecasts.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 35% chance of flat performance due to persistent uncertainty.
  • 30% chance of 5% decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions.
  • 25% chance of moderate gain driven by positive EU data.
  • 10% probability of extreme volatility reacting to unexpected events.




Trading Oracle:
  • With implied volatility slightly higher than market levels, implement a Bearish Short Volatility strategy. This leverages market caution reflected in the volatility term structure.



April 26, 2025


SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 Forecast

FEZ        SPDR EURO Stoxx 50











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Assets that tend to move strongly with FEZ



EQX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQX  Equinox Gold (0.65)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (0.62)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (0.62)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.58)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.56)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FEZ



CDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDW  CDW (-0.0)


BFLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BFLY  Butterfly Network (-0.0)


PSMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSMT  Pricesmart (0.0)


VST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VST  Vistra (-0.01)


VT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FEZ



RPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPD  Rapid7 (-0.56)


EA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EA  Electronic Arts (-0.57)


FLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLR  Fluor (-0.61)


FLYW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLYW  Flywire (-0.62)


FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (-0.65)









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