AAL Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: American Airlines' positive travel demand, debt reduction, and strategic upgrades enhance revenue prospects despite challenges.




Bearish Case: High operational costs, potential labor disruptions, and legal issues pose significant downside risks to AAL's profitability.




Potential Outcomes: Persistent high demand boosts stock 45%. Labor strikes trigger 30% decline. Legal complications lead to 25% volatility spike.




Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads: buy Feb '25 $18 calls, sell $20, capturing upside from travel demand spike and stable IV. Hold 2-4 weeks.



January 16, 2025


American Airlines Forecast

AAL        American Airlines











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