ACR Forecast


Bullish Case: ACR's low price-to-book ratio and undervaluation suggest potential for upward correction. Long-term holding could yield significant returns as historical data indicates favorable outcomes for long positions.


Bearish Case: Persistent recent flat price action and high implied volatility in the near-term may indicate a lack of catalysts for growth. Microeconomic factors, like issues in the radiology supply chain, might depress stock prices further.


Potential Outcomes:

1. ACR stock appreciates due to market correction (40%).

2. ACR remains flat given unchanged fundamentals (40%).

3. ACR declines amid macroeconomic pressures (20%). Probabilities derived from historical performance and current volatilities.


Trading Oracle: Open a Helium Short Volatility credit spread; focus on shorter-term maturities (1-3 months). Utilize ACR 12.50/15.00 strikes given the high implied volatility and sufficient premium. This setup capitalizes on ACR's flat price trend and decaying volatility.


July 14, 2024


ACRES Commercial Realty Forecast

ACR      ACRES Commercial Realty











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Assets that tend to move strongly with ACR



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RJF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RJF  Raymond James Financial (0.95)


SLM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLM  SLM (0.94)


IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.94)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACR



ES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ES  Eversource Energy (0.0)


MAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAN  ManpowerGroup (-0.0)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (0.01)


CME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CME  CME (0.01)


KIRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KIRK  Kirkland's (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACR



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.91)


HNRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HNRG  Hallador Energy (-0.91)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.93)





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