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AGNC Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: AGNC may benefit from stabilizing interest rates and appeal as a high-yield investment, potentially leading to price recovery and increased investor sentiment, especially given the upcoming earnings season.



Bearish Case: Continued high volatility and mixed performance in the mortgage-backed securities market may weigh down AGNC, especially if interest rates rise further or market conditions deteriorate.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30%: AGNC rebounds as dividends attract investors.
  • 40%: Price declines due to persistent high volatility and interest rates.
  • 30%: Range-bound trading continues amid mixed economic signals.



Trading Oracle: Consider a debit spread strategy, buying AGNC calls (e.g., $10 strike) and selling $11 calls, targeting potential upside around earnings while hedging against volatility. This balances risk and reward effectively given current high implied volatility.


December 15, 2024


AGNC Investment Forecast

AGNC        AGNC Investment

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NNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NNN  National Retail Properties (0.55)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.54)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGNC


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.0)


LUV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUV  Southwest Airlines (-0.0)


GDYN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDYN  Grid Dynamics (-0.0)


MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (-0.0)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGNC


NICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NICE  NICE (-0.31)


HP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HP  Helmerich & Payne (-0.33)


PRCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRCH  Porch (-0.36)


XPO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XPO  XPO Logistics (-0.37)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.52)







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