AGO Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AGO benefits from ongoing buybacks and positive market sentiment, with a low P/B ratio suggesting undervaluation. Volatility surfaces indicate potential stability.




Bearish Case: High put volume and elevated implied volatility signal market anxiety. Regulatory concerns and economic uncertainty could pressurize AGO’s price.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Stabilization with moderate gains: 50% probability. Mean-reverting action supports gradual growth.
  • Regulatory and economic challenges causing decline: 30% probability. Elevated implied volatility supports downside risk.
  • High volatility with mixed trading results: 20% probability.



April 15, 2025


Assured Guaranty Forecast

AGO        Assured Guaranty











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DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFS  Discover Financial Services (0.93)


TOST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TOST  Toast (0.92)


RCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCL  Royal Caribbean (0.92)


ARKF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKF  ARK Fintech Innovation (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGO



BCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCC  Boise Cascade (-0.0)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.01)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (-0.01)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.01)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGO



GSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSL  Global Ship Lease (-0.74)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.75)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.76)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.77)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.81)









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