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AGO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AGO's strong position in municipal insurance, coupled with favorable credit ratings and past resilience, suggests potential for growth amid economic recovery.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility at lower strike prices and regulatory risks could pressure AGO, particularly with potential economic downturns affecting bond markets.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Modest EPS growth leads to slight gains (55%).

2) Regulatory headwinds cause price dip (25%).

3) Market stability keeps prices steady (20%).

Trading Oracle: Consider employing a bull call debit spread. Buy AGO May 2025 90.00 C, sell 95.00 C. This leverages stable implied volatility and bullish sentiment with defined risk, targeting moderate upside. Suitable in a 3-4 month horizon with a favorable profit-to-risk ratio.

January 28, 2025

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AGO Assured Guaranty

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AGO

ARKK ARK Innovation (0.9)

LYV Live Nation Entertainment (0.87)

CG Carlyle (0.86)

IONQ IonQ (0.85)

GL Globe Life (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGO

HPQ HP (0.0)

ABNB Airbnb (0.0)

OPCH Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.0)

DNN Denison Mines (0.01)

INTU Intuit (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGO

ST Sensata (-0.71)

AZN Astrazeneca (-0.75)

ASPN Aspen Aerogels (-0.76)

OGN Organon (-0.76)

TMDX Transmedics (-0.78)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.