Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The implied volatility trends indicate market optimism around AGO's future performance, supported by steady EPS growth and favorable buyback activity. This suggests a potential upward movement in stock price.

Bearish Case: Market volatility remains high, with significant uncertainty due to potential regulatory changes and macroeconomic pressures. This could trigger downward price movements, making a bearish outlook prudent.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1) Continued buybacks lead to a +5% rally by January (60%).
• 2) Negative regulatory news dampens sentiment, leading to a -10% decline (25%).
• 3) Stabilization around current prices with minimal fluctuation (-1% to +1%) (15%).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bull call debit spread by buying AGO 01/17/2025 90.00 C and selling 01/17/2025 95.00 C. This strategy exploits current bullish sentiment and low implied volatility, targeting a favorable risk-reward setup with strong upside potential.

December 13, 2024