AGX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AGX's strong historical performance, increasing call volume, and higher implied volatility suggest potential for further gains. The energy sector demand boosts Argan's fundamentals.




Bearish Case: Persistent revenue struggles, high implied volatility, and mean-reverting price action indicate potential downside. Skepticism over Argan's project execution could pressure the stock.




Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of upside due to energy demand, 40% sideways on stable dividends, 30% downside from revenue issues. Volatility remains elevated, aligning with mean-reverting price trends.




Trading Oracle: Implement bullish call debit spreads, buying $140 calls and selling $150 calls, expiring April 2025. Capture potential upside from favorable volatility and growth catalysts. Limit downside risk and leverage higher implied volatility for optimal reward:risk.



December 27, 2024


Argan Forecast

AGX        Argan











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VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.96)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGX



S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (-0.0)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.0)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.0)


IGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGM  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech Sector (0.01)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGX



IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.9)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.9)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.91)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.92)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.96)









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