AL Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AL's fleet expansions and low P/B ratio reveal undervaluation, hinting at potential upward correction. Low implied volatility supports strategic growth opportunities.




Bearish Case: High debt levels, rising interest rates, and stagnant price action suggest potential downside. External economic factors could exacerbate risks, leading to a bearish outlook.




Potential Outcomes: Probabilities:

1. Continued flat trading (30%).

2. Moderate growth from P/B undervaluation (30%).

3. Decline due to macroeconomic pressures (40%).




Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread: sell AL $45 Put, buy $40 Put, expiring in 8 days. Leverage high negative edge in implied vol. Target realistic profit with low risk, exploiting Helium's positive probability for short-term bearish returns.



February 14, 2025


Air Lease Corp Forecast

AL        Air Lease Corp











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