AL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AL's fleet expansion and low P/B ratio hint at undervaluation, supported by mean-reversion in price action.




Bearish Case: High debt levels and potential economic headwinds, coupled with oversupply risks, could pressure AL's stock downward.




Potential Outcomes: 50% volatility persists, 30% downward shift on economic concerns, 20% price recovery from undervaluation.




Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread. Buy AL May 2025 $50 calls, sell $55 calls. Target medium-term mean-reversion. Favorable R/R exploiting current low volatility. Capture upside as earnings boost is likely.



January 14, 2025


Air Lease Corp Forecast

AL        Air Lease Corp











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