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ALGN Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ALGN benefits from innovation in dental technology with consistent clear aligner demand, leading to potential growth in a recovering economic environment.

Bearish Case: High competition and market volatility, coupled with a mean-reverting price trend and high implied volatilities, suggest continued price pressure amid uncertain economic conditions.

Potential Outcomes: 40% recovery from demand growth; 30% correction on valuation concerns; 20% market-driven swings; 10% further declines on macroeconomic issues.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying the $220 call and selling the $225 call expiring in March. The backwardation in implied volatility suggests potential near-term increase with a positive reward-risk ratio.

January 16, 2025

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ALGN Align Technology

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ALGN

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (0.9)

LEA Lear (0.9)

NGL NGL Energy Partners (0.89)

BRKR Bruker (0.89)

TRIP TripAdvisor (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALGN

ACN Accenture (0.0)

WPC W. P. Carey (-0.0)

GIII G-III Apparel (-0.0)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (0.01)

FMC FMC (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALGN

VIRT Virtu Financial (-0.81)

KGC Kinross Gold (-0.82)

TDS Telephone And Data Systems (-0.83)

ALHC Alignment Healthcare (-0.84)

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.86)

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