Bullish Case: ALLO's -22% three-month slide into $1.62 has compressed expectations: Helium's density places the modal outcome near $1.5-2.0, but the thin right tail ($2.5+) persists. ALPHA3's earlier 58%-vs-16% MRD advantage remains unrefuted, and Nov 20 expiry calls (2.00C, 109% IV) are cheap lottery tickets. If interim safety holds and no financing surfaces before mid-2027's readout, short-covering off a 93% five-year drawdown could drive a sharp re-rate. Helium's +2.32% read is mildly supportive.

Bearish Case: The return surface concentrates likelihood in modest losses across horizons, and price action confirms it: $2.08 to $1.62 in 90 days with persistent lower highs. Options volume sits at the 1st percentile — no institutional sponsorship — while 50%-strike put IVs of 200-500% signal genuine survival/dilution fear. Market-implied density peaks at $1.5, below spot. Cash burn toward a likely raise, plus SPY's persistent downside skew (35+ vol at low strikes), keeps $1.00-1.30 in play.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 38% $1.3-1.9 grind: no catalysts, dilution overhang; falsified by >$2.15 reclaim.
2. 22% Financing disclosed (ATM/follow-on) within 6 months → $1.0-1.4; falsified by no 424B filing by Mar 2027.
3. 18% Positive ALPHA3/ALLO-316 durability update → $2.2-3.0; falsified if MRD cohort data disappoints.
4. 12% Safety/futility signal → <$1.20.
5. 7% Partnership/deal → >$2.80.
6. 3% SPY risk-off derating, -20%+.

September 30, 2026