Bullish Case: AMBC's bullish scenario stems from adequate institutional support, heightened trading of call options indicating anticipated growth, and recent EPS estimates surpassing expectations, hinting at improved financial health.


Bearish Case: A decade-long downtrend, poor short-term price performance, and consistently high implied volatilities on put options paint a picture of lingering market skepticism and potential further declines.


Potential Outcomes: 70% chance AMBC remains flat or declines slightly due to ongoing market hesitance; 30% chance AMBC rebounds modestly on investor optimism spurred by institutional actions and earnings surprises.


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April 30, 2024


AMBAC Financial Forecast

AMBC        AMBAC Financial
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











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BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (0.87)


FOUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOUR  Shift4 Payments (0.84)


VZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VZ  Verizon Communications (0.84)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.84)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to AMBC



DRIV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRIV  Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles (0.0)


DBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBA  Invesco DB Agriculture (0.0)


ZUO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZUO  Zuora (-0.0)


CAPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAPR  Capricor Therapeutics (-0.0)


PEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEN  Penumbra (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMBC



NBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NBR  Nabors Industries (-0.79)


TH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TH  Target Hospitality Corp (-0.81)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.83)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.83)


CELH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CELH  Celsius (-0.86)





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