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ARES Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ARES could capitalize on results from new defense contracts and partnerships, driving stock price growth, as historical returns and high implied volatility suggest potential upward movements.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties could lead to increased risk aversion, potentially resulting in price declines if geopolitical tensions escalate or financial conditions tighten.

Potential Outcomes: Increased defense sector growth: 35% probability, fueled by new contracts.

Sustained volatility: 30% probability, due to economic uncertainties.

Geopolitical risks: 20% probability, affecting global market stability.

Flat performance: 15% probability, amidst sector competition.

April 17, 2025

Ares Forecast

ARES Ares

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ARES

AXP American Express (0.96)

IWR BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.95)

VB Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (0.94)

IVV BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.93)

MAC Macerich (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARES

TRI Thomson-Reuters (-0.0)

ADI Analog Devices (-0.0)

CMCSA Comcast (-0.01)

INTU Intuit (0.02)

ESTC Elastic (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARES

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.73)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.74)

BMRN Registered Shares (-0.79)

DG Dollar General (-0.84)

SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares (-0.91)

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