Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Bullish case hinges on strong upcoming earnings reports and investor interest in private equity due to high yields, pushing ARES towards $185. Increased fundraising also indicates positive market sentiment.

Bearish Case: Increased market volatility and rising interest rates may hinder ARES's performance, potentially resulting in price dips towards $160, fueled by investor hesitance and competition in the financial sector.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. Earnings recovery drives price to $185 (60% probability).
• 2. Increased volatility leads to a drop to $160 (30% probability).
• 3. Market remains flat amidst sector pressures (10% probability).

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy with debit spreads: buy ARES $175 call and sell $180 call for November expiration. This leverages potential upward movement indicated by volatility surface and historical returns, providing a favorable risk-reward profile with high probability of profit.

November 29, 2024