ATHA Forecast


Bullish Case: ATHA's completion of the LIFT-AD trial with results expected in Q3 2024 has potential to significantly boost stock price if outcomes are positive, especially given historical evidenced returns on holding up to a year.


Bearish Case: ATHA demonstrates high volatility and mean reversion patterns with options showing elevated implied volatility, suggesting potential downside post-trial results and high likelihood of loss over short-term holding periods.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive LIFT-AD trial results (30%) - significant price surge.

2. Neutral/inconclusive results (50%) - minimal movement.

3. Negative results (20%) - significant price drop.


Trading Oracle: Leverage implied volatility: open credit spreads targeting 2-3 months ahead to capitalize on ATHA's mean reversion and high implied volatility. Bearish bias; consider 5.00 P or 7.50 P options for high reward:risk and positive edge.


July 20, 2024


Athira Pharma Forecast

ATHA      Athira Pharma











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