Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Strong project completions and increased cash flow from new PPAs position AY for growth. Higher historical returns suggest a rebound, especially with market volatility easing.

Bearish Case: Financial strain from ongoing asset devaluation and high implied volatility indicates potential for further downturns. Market sentiment remains cautious, leading to limited upside in the short term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful project launches lift stock by 60%;

2. Continued asset deterioration drops prices further, 40%;

3. Regulatory changes boost renewable growth, 30%;

4. Market sentiment shifts positively, increasing demand, 50%.

Trading Oracle: Given recent volatility trends, consider a bullish debit spread by buying AY $22.50 calls and selling $25.00 calls, targeting December 2024 expiration. This exploits projected stabilization in volatility and aims for high reward with manageable risk. Probability-of-profit is favorable.

November 15, 2024