COCO Forecast


Bullish Case: Positive sentiment around COCO's strong growth potential in the coconut water market aligns with favorable implied volatility trends, suggesting upward price action. Recent market data indicates a 3% forecast increase from Helium, reinforcing this outlook.


Bearish Case: Heightened market uncertainty, as indicated by elevated put option volumes and an increase in implied volatility, suggests potential downward pressure on COCO prices. External economic factors may exacerbate these risks, leading to bearish sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of a sudden 10% price increase due to positive earnings.

2. 25% chance of stagnation in the next quarter, given mixed market signals.

3. 45% chance of a significant downturn if trends in consumer preference shift against coconut water.


Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying COCO 30.00 C (implied vol 63.5%) and selling COCO 25.00 C (implied vol 65.9%) for August expiry. This strategy leverages manageable risk to capitalize on potential price rebounds while mitigating downside exposure.


July 25, 2024


Vita Coco Forecast

COCO      Vita Coco











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