CAT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Caterpillar's strong position in infrastructure and technological advancements offers potential for growth, supported by low implied volatility indicating investor confidence.




Bearish Case: Economic headwinds and elevated valuation metrics pose risks, as supply chain issues and macroeconomic factors could affect Caterpillar negatively.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: Price stability due to solid infrastructure demand.
  • 30%: Price decline from economic uncertainties and supply chain issues.
  • 10%: Significant rebound driven by unexpected macroeconomic improvements.




Trading Oracle: Implement Bullish Short Volatility. With the implied volatility below market expectations and historical trends indicating stability, consider selling ATM put options and buying OOTM put options. This strategy effectively balances risk and return, capitalizing on premium decay.



April 04, 2025


Caterpillar Forecast

CAT        Caterpillar











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