CFA Forecast


Bullish Case: CFA's historical return likelihood surface and low implied volatility for high strikes across longer term suggest potential moderate growth. Continued advancements in space discovery (e.g., distant galaxy discovery) may boost investor sentiment.


Bearish Case: Flat price action, low near-term volatility, and elevated H2 implied volatility suggest risk of downside consolidation. Persistent CFA funding cuts and unresolved mental health issues pose further downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: Moderate growth due to space discoveries; probability 35%
Downside consolidation following flat action and investor uncertainty; probability 40%
Neutral with slight fluctuations driven by mixed fundamentals; probability 25%


Trading Oracle: Initiate Helium credit spreads (short volatility) near-dated for higher strikes (above $80), expiring in 173 days to capture premium decay on lower volatility. Short-term neutral stance, expecting low-to-moderate price move while capitalizing on time decay.


June 26, 2024


VictoryShares US 500 Volatility Wtd Forecast

CFA      VictoryShares US 500 Volatility Wtd











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