Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased institutional confidence and stable macroeconomic conditions could drive CFG's price to hit resistance levels around $50, supported by improved loan performance and a sound balance sheet.

Bearish Case: Persistent issues in office loan performance and high implied volatility could pressure CFG's price below $40, reflecting heightened skepticism from market participants and deteriorating investor confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of upward price movement driven by institutional confidence and potential profitability increases.
• 40% chance of stability around $45 as market evaluates mixed signals.
• 30% chance of a downward trend if loan performance deteriorates further.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long call spread by purchasing the January $45 call and selling the $50 call to capture potential upside while limiting risk. With implied volatility starting to stabilize, this approach maximizes reward-to-risk through directional exposure while capitalizing on short-term volatility. Aim for a target within the upcoming earnings report for further upside potential.

December 13, 2024