JXN Forecast


Bullish Case: JXN's impressive earnings beat and sustained dividend growth at 12% year-over-year highlight a strong outlook. Robust RIA channel and rising annuities should drive significant gains.


Bearish Case: Concerns about overvaluation and negative net flows in the annuity sector remain. A potential sharp decline looms if earnings disappoint or major investors pull back.


Potential Outcomes: Price stabilization (50%): Supported by strong capital and high earnings. Continued growth (30%): Driven by robust sales channels. Sharp decline (20%): Due to market corrections or earnings misses.


Trading Oracle: Short volatility via credit spreads at lower strikes, focusing on 70-75 Puts expiring September 2024. Leverage high implied volatility (~46%) for significant edge, targeting slow decay over 2 months. High reward:risk ratio with stabilization bias.


July 16, 2024


Jackson Financial Forecast

JXN      Jackson Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JXN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.78)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JXN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.78)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.8)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JXN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.78)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.8)





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