CHAU Forecast


Bullish Case: Significant call buying and bullish option skew suggest strong upside potential. Volume is favoring long-term call options.


Bearish Case: Historical data shows consistently negative returns for CHAU over long periods. High implied volatility indicates market fear.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued downtrend (65%) due to weak historical performance.

2. Short-term upside from mean reversion (25%).

3. Volatility spike (10%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate a credit spread leveraging high IV: Sell 2 $13P (11/15/24), Buy 1 $15P (11/15/24), delta-neutral, theta positive. Expected profit: $1.3 per risk unit with 66% win rate. Focus on expiring near-term.


June 30, 2024


Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares Forecast

CHAU      Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CHAU



ASHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASHR  Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares (0.99)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.83)


HRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRL  Hormel Foods (0.82)


BABA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BABA  Alibaba (0.82)


NTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTR  Nutrien (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CHAU



PAAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAAS  Pan American Silver (0.0)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.0)


PYPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PYPL  PayPal (-0.0)


BEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEP  Brookfield Renewable (0.0)


EQR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQR  Equity Residential Properties (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CHAU



INSM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSM  Insmed (-0.79)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.81)


X Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   X  United States Steel (-0.83)


PANW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PANW  Palo Alto Networks (-0.84)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (-0.84)





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