CMI Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CMI's implied volatility term structure in contango with strong clean-energy momentum and call volume dominance suggests continued upward potential.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility in lower strikes and past governance issues suggest potential vulnerabilities and increased downside risks.




Potential Outcomes: Probabilistic Outcomes:
  • Continued growth from clean energy (60%)
  • Short-term dips from governance issues (30%)
  • Minor fluctuations amid broader market (10%)




Trading Oracle: Initiate a medium-term bull call spread: buy $360 calls, sell $370 calls for March 2025. Take advantage of low implied volatility and strong clean energy outlook, targeting appreciation. This strategy offers a robust reward-to-risk profile with a high probability of profit, leveraging current market sentiment and strong call volume.



January 07, 2025


Cummins Forecast

CMI        Cummins











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PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (0.95)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.93)


CINF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CINF  Cincinnati Financial (0.93)


AXON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXON  Axon Enterprise (0.91)


IWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWR  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMI



VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (-0.0)


BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (0.01)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (0.01)


DQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DQ  Daqo New Energy (0.02)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CMI



NTLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTLA  Intellia Therapeutics (-0.82)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.82)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.82)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.9)









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