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COM Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: Potential bullish sentiment arises from increased demand for commodities spurred by easing geopolitical tensions, alongside low volatility levels that could indicate market normalization and price recovery.

Bearish Case: A bearish scenario may unfold due to persistent economic headwinds, reflected by high implied volatility levels and historical returns displaying a tendency for negative outcomes over sustained periods.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of moderate price increase (1.5%-5%) due to demand recovery.

2. 35% chance of stagnation (flat) as uncertainty continues.

3. 25% chance of a steep decline (>5%) driven by economic shocks.

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November 19, 2024

Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy Forecast

COM Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COM

TGB Taseko Mines (0.87)

MU Micron Technology (0.8)

HBM Hudbay Minerals (0.79)

CADL Candel Therapeutics (0.76)

AA Alcoa (0.75)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COM

NCNO Ncino (0.0)

RIG Transocean (0.0)

RIO Rio Tinto (0.01)

IBB BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Biotechnology (0.01)

DHI D.R. Horton (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COM

YCL ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.7)

ADBE Adobe (-0.73)

JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals (-0.74)

IGT International Game Technology (-0.77)

GL Globe Life (-0.81)

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