Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Imminent FDA approvals for exa-cel can trigger a significant stock rally, potentially returning to previous high valuations as market optimism resurfaces. Strong institutional interest is expected to bolster volumes.

Bearish Case: Continued competition and uncertainty around FDA timelines might destabilize market confidence, leading to further declines. Potential leadership upheaval could amplify investor wariness, pressuring the stock further down.

Potential Outcomes:

• Exa-cel FDA approval gains traction (70%)
• Increased competition from bluebird/Vertex (30%)
• Leadership changes lead to volatility (50%)
• New pipeline developments yield neutral to positive results (40%)

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread using the CRSP 12/20/2024 50.00 C and 52.00 C options to capture upside potential from expected FDA approvals. With high implied volatility likely leading to significant market moves, this strategy offers strong risk-reward metrics and maintains exposure to potential bullish catalysts while limiting downside risk.

November 23, 2024