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CSF Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CSF's historical mean reversion indicates a potential upward shift, especially after recent stabilization, offering a chance for modest gains.

Bearish Case: Extended economic weakness and recent underperformance imply continued mean reversion or further decline, reinforced by negative trends in historical analysis.

Potential Outcomes: 50% continued mean reversion with slight gains. 30% further decline amid economic stagnation. 20% breakout driven by unexpected positive news.

Trading Oracle: Implement Helium Short Volatility via a 3-month $55-$60 short call spread. Bearish lean given extended negative trends and current price stability. This high-probability setup optimizes reward:risk under mean-reversion and stable volatility conditions.

February 16, 2025

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CSF VictoryShares US Discovery Enhanced Volatility Wtd

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CSF

DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.95)

IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.94)

AXP American Express (0.92)

DEI Douglas Emmett (0.92)

EXTR Extreme Networks (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CSF

RMBS Rambus (-0.01)

EPI WisdomTree India Earnings (0.01)

AMRC Ameresco (-0.01)

ESTC Elastic (-0.02)

INTU Intuit (0.05)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CSF

MQ Marqeta (-0.74)

CNI Canadian National Railway (-0.74)

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (-0.77)

LEA Lear (-0.78)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)

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