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CVX Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CVX's strong cash flow, strategic acquisitions, and recent price stabilization support continued growth, despite oil price fluctuations.

Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and geopolitical risks could hinder CVX's profitability, especially with volatile oil prices and legal uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful asset integration boosts EPS (60%).

2. Regulatory hurdles affect profitability (30%).

3. Labor disputes lead to short-term disruptions (10%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread on CVX options for March 2025. Buy the $155 C and sell the $160 C. IV is low, enhancing reward:risk as the structure unwinds backwardation, capturing upside from strategic growth investments. Monitor for regulatory updates.

January 23, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CVX

HES Hess (0.89)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.84)

ETR Entergy (0.7)

UAN CVR Partners (0.7)

APH Amphenol (0.65)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CVX

CHPT ChargePoint (-0.0)

YPF YPF (0.0)

BYRN Byrna (-0.0)

BHVN Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.0)

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CVX

LCID Lucid (-0.56)

INFY Infosys (-0.57)

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.62)

VXX iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.63)

CALX Calix (-0.64)

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