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CVX Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CVX's strong cash flow, strategic acquisitions, and recent price stabilization support continued growth, despite oil price fluctuations.

Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and geopolitical risks could hinder CVX's profitability, especially with volatile oil prices and legal uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful asset integration boosts EPS (60%).

2. Regulatory hurdles affect profitability (30%).

3. Labor disputes lead to short-term disruptions (10%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread on CVX options for March 2025. Buy the $155 C and sell the $160 C. IV is low, enhancing reward:risk as the structure unwinds backwardation, capturing upside from strategic growth investments. Monitor for regulatory updates.

January 23, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CVX

ETR Entergy (0.74)

NOG Northern Oil and Gas (0.71)

CRSR Corsair Gaming (0.7)

DNOW NOW (0.68)

TDOC Teladoc Health (0.68)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CVX

ITRN Ituran Location And Control (0.0)

BYRN Byrna (-0.0)

MBUU Malibu Boats (0.01)

MOH Molina Healthcare (-0.01)

ARKK ARK Innovation (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CVX

CDNA Caredx (-0.57)

CALX Calix (-0.58)

ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp (-0.59)

VXX iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.67)

DRIP Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.88)

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