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DAWN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive catalysts, including upcoming FDA approvals and strong pipeline developments indicate potential for significant upside. Current trading activity suggests increased speculative interest in calls, bolstered by high implied volatility.



Bearish Case: Market sentiment could shift negatively due to an impending flat price action, coupled with historical performance indicating limited positive returns over longer holding periods, creating potential downside risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1. FDA approval leading to a +30% spike (30% likelihood);

2. Biotech sector rally boosting shares by +20% (25% likelihood);

3. Clinical trial setbacks causing a -25% drop (15% likelihood);

4. Sustained flat action (-30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish long call spread (buy DAWN 12/20/2024 20.00 C and sell 22.50 C), leveraging the current backwardation and high implied volatility. This setup capitalizes on potential price increases while providing defined risk, as DAWN's volatility outlook warrants a long volatility stance for enhanced profit opportunities.


November 13, 2024


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DAWN        Day One Biopharmaceuticals

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