HDB Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Helium implied volatility discount suggests undervalued options. HDB historical resilience and mean-reverting behavior support price increase, leveraging merger benefits and strategic partnerships.


Bearish Case: Mean reversion indicates potential pullback. High implied volatility in lower strikes signals market apprehension. Expected regulatory pressures and integration challenges post-merger may depress prices.


Potential Outcomes: 60% growth leveraging merger synergies, 25% adverse reactions to integration issues, 15% short-term underperformance amid volatility and regulatory pressures.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread. Buy 1 $65 call, sell 1 $70 call expiring in ~112 days. This aligns with 124% annual historical return, maximizing upside on moderate bullish sentiment by exploiting contango and undervalued Helium volatility signals.


June 30, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HDB



ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.74)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.72)


APLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLD  Applied Blockchain (0.72)


OPK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPK  Opko Health (0.69)


ABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABR  Arbor Realty (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HDB



KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.0)


BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (0.0)


FLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLO  Flowers Foods (0.0)


XMTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XMTR  Xometry (0.0)


MQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MQ  Marqeta (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HDB



AGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGO  Assured Guaranty (-0.59)


EDU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDU  New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. - (-0.59)


HMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMC  Honda Motor (-0.61)


TM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TM  Toyota Motor (-0.63)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (-0.66)





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