Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: DEI's robust portfolio in sought-after locales may allow it to outshine competitors as economic conditions recover, supported by potential mean reversion trends indicated by historical return surfaces.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility (500% for short-term puts) signals acute market uncertainty, coupled with negative social media sentiment and potential financial setbacks, suggesting further price declines may be likely.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of a modest recovery, driven by overall market stabilization and institutional buying interest.
2. 40% chance of continued price decline due to sustained high implied volatility and negative market sentiment.
3. 20% chance of a sharp rebound post-positive earnings announcement.
4. 10% chance of drastic downturn due to regulatory backlash or significant investor withdrawals.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread by buying DEI 20.00 calls and selling DEI 22.50 calls with a one-month expiration. The high implied volatility provides a favorable entry point, capitalizing on potential price recovery while managing risk with an optimal reward-to-risk ratio.

December 20, 2024