DK Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Delek US benefits from energy market recovery and successful sustainability projects, aligning with broader trends. Options show higher call volume.




Bearish Case: Continued institutional sell-off and volatile oil prices undermine DK’s valuation, with elevated implied volatility indicating future risks.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Market volatility leads to unpredictable outcomes (50%).
2. Outperforming earnings reverses trend (30%).
3. Institutional sell-off depresses price (40%).
4. Sustainability success boosts price (30%).




Trading Oracle: Bearish Long Volatility: Buying OOTM puts and selling fewer further OOTM puts leverages elevated volatility. Chosen due to DK's current low price trend, high volatility, and selling pressure risk, aiming for significant returns on price declines.



March 27, 2025


Delek US Forecast

DK        Delek US











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DK



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.92)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (0.91)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (0.9)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.9)


PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DK



BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.0)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.01)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.01)


IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.01)


IMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMO  Imperial Oil (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DK



KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.88)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.88)


NOK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOK  Nokia (-0.89)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (-0.89)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (-0.91)









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