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EDR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: EDR's role in sports and entertainment and recent partnerships could stimulate growth. Historical returns indicate potential for moderate gains.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and social media skepticism highlight risk. Current options activity shows large put volumes indicating bearish sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate growth (40%) due to strategic partnerships and integrations.

2. Price decline (30%) from unresolved legal issues.

3. Stable performance (30%) driven by market saturation.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread given high implied volatility and strong put activity. Target near-term expiries by March 2025 with strikes around $28-$29. Capture rich premiums with defined risk and benefit from potential volatility decrease.

January 29, 2025

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BCS Barclays (0.96)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EDR

LEN Lennar (0.01)

AMC AMC Entertainment (0.02)

TS Tenaris S.A. (0.02)

ASAN Asana (-0.03)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EDR

CNI Canadian National Railway (-0.92)

IEP Icahn (-0.93)

LEA Lear (-0.94)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.95)

COTY Coty (-0.95)

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