Bullish Case: A favorable outcome from Saba's proposals could catalyze significant changes in management strategy, leading to enhanced fund performance and price appreciation. Historical data indicates that short holding periods can yield modest returns, supporting this outlook.

Bearish Case: Management instability and potential rejection of activist proposals may exacerbate negative price trends. Historical analysis shows a strong likelihood of flat or negative returns, especially given past performance patterns in similar contexts.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Saba's proposals pass (+10%) - 30% chance.

2. Current management retains control (-5%) - 50% chance.

3. Market remains flat or mildly negative (-2%) - 20% chance.

Trading Oracle: Implement a credit spread strategy focusing on stability. Sell call credit spreads at $10 for a 1-2 month duration, taking advantage of low volatility and the potential for EGF to remain near current levels. This approach offers favorable risk-reward dynamics without significant downside exposure.

November 21, 2024