Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The bullish case for ET hinges on anticipated revenue growth driven by increased demand for natural gas, particularly from datacenters. This aligns with improving implied volatility, suggesting market optimism about price recovery in the near term.

Bearish Case: Conversely, the bearish scenario assumes downward pressure from regulatory challenges and ongoing market fears linked to economic uncertainties, resulting in sustained low trading volumes, which could lead to further price drops in ET.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% - Price recovers to $19 by Q1 2025 due to favorable earnings.

2. 40% - Price stagnates around $17 with continued market volatility.

3. 20% - Price drops to $15 following negative macroeconomic trends.

4. 5% - Price spikes above $20 with reduced uncertainty and renewed investor confidence.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying 1 ET 11/08/2024 18.00 C and selling 1 ET 11/15/2024 19.00 C. This strategy leverages the high implied volatility at current option strikes, targeting moderate upside with a strong likelihood of profit (estimated at 74%) in a favorable market context. Assess X factor events leading to price momentum.

November 08, 2024