EVER Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: EVER's mean-reverting behavior with recent strong gains suggests potential recovery momentum, supported by strategic partnerships and positive market sentiment.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and competitive insurtech sector challenges pose risks. Historical mean reversion cautions against sustained upward momentum, with insider selling adding pressure.




Potential Outcomes:

1. High volatility correction (40%).

2. Positive earnings surprise (25%).

3. Continued insider selling (20%).

4. Increase in strategic partnerships (15%).




Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish credit spread by selling the March 2025 $17.50 Puts and buying $15 Puts. Capitalize on elevated implied volatilities and mean-reversion potential, aiming for limited downside with controlled risk. Duration: 1-2 months.



February 11, 2025


EverQuote Forecast

EVER        EverQuote











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EVER



TNDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNDM  Tandem Diabetes Care (0.82)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.76)


BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (0.75)


ATI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATI  Allegheny (0.73)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EVER



ABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABR  Arbor Realty (-0.0)


VRNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNS  Varonis Systems (-0.0)


BILI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BILI  Bilibili (-0.0)


DPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPST  Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (-0.01)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EVER



WHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WHR  Whirlpool (-0.64)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (-0.65)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (-0.67)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.67)


NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (-0.71)









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