FAT Forecast


Bullish Case: FAT Brands' strategic expansion and strong brand portfolio may yield significant revenue growth, particularly with recent openings and potential market recovery. The historical return surface indicates stronger long-term returns which could enhance investor confidence.


Bearish Case: Ongoing legal issues, including criminal indictments against management, pose serious risks to FAT Brands' stock price. Recent operational losses and a lack of clear regulatory resolution could spiral into further declines, as indicated by past performance trends.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Improved financial recovery leading to +30% returns (40%);

2. Continued legal complications leading to a -25% drop (35%);

3. Divesting underperforming assets resulting in +15% returns (15%);

4. Major acquisition announcement leading to +50% returns (10%).


Trading Oracle: Given the bearish sentiment and uncertainty, consider initiating credit spreads (short volatility) on FAT, targeting a range of $4.50 to $5.00 over the next 3 months. This provides high reward/risk potential with a favorable probability of profit amid ongoing risks.


July 25, 2024


FAT Brands Forecast

FAT      FAT Brands











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CRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRI  Carters (0.76)


ODP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODP  ODP (0.75)


LVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LVS  Las Vegas Sands (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FAT



SOYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOYB  Teucrium Soybean (-0.0)


MET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MET  Metlife (0.0)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.0)


SLM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLM  SLM (0.0)


EXEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXEL  Exelixis (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FAT



SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (-0.6)


LNTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNTH  Lantheus (-0.62)


NVAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVAX  Novavax (-0.63)


TDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDS  Telephone And Data Systems (-0.67)


ARLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARLP  Alliance Resource (-0.67)





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