Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Strong potential for upside driven by positive FDA announcements regarding Cabometyx, elevated institutional support, and improvements in health outcomes for patients, indicating higher sales projections in 2025.

Bearish Case: Risks from expired patents allowing generic competition, ongoing insider trading investigations, and potential earnings misses could strain investor confidence and lead to a notable stock decline.

Potential Outcomes:

1. FDA approval for Cabometyx (60% probability).

2. Market share loss to generics (30% probability).

3. Positive earnings report leading to stock surge (40% probability).

4. Continued insider trading scrutiny leading to discounts (20% probability).

Trading Oracle: Implement a long call spread strategy by buying the 35.00 call and selling the 36.00 call, capturing favorable market volatility. This setup balances defined risk against an expected positive price swing as catalysts unfold, given the Helium volatility curve. Target investment returns of approximately 120% as earning reports approach.

November 20, 2024