FBIZ Forecast


Bullish Case: FBIZ has shown a consistent upward trend in historical returns, supported by higher investment securities holdings by banks and favorable market conditions. The lower realized volatility indicates stable growth ahead.


Bearish Case: FBIZ's forecasted earnings decline and flat recent price action, coupled with high implied volatility, suggest potential downside risks. The Helium AI indicates higher uncertainty, hinting at possible negative price movements.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of stable growth as investment securities rise; 30% chance of a price correction due to earnings decline; 20% chance of significant volatility owing to market uncertainties and external economic factors.


Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads, e.g., buying 35.00 call, selling 45.00 call expiring Dec 2024. Favorable risk-reward with minimal capital outlay. Volatility edge suggests higher reward potential from stable or rising price scenario over next 6 months.


July 10, 2024


First Business Financial Services Forecast

FBIZ      First Business Financial Services











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.36)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FBIZ



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FBIZ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.36)





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