FIX Forecast


Bullish Case: With strong demand in construction and HVAC sectors, robust financials, and a backlog of $5.9 billion, FIX is likely to see continued growth. Positive earnings surprises and strategic acquisitions further support an optimistic outlook.


Bearish Case: Rising short interest and concerns about overvaluation in a potentially cooling construction market create downside risks for FIX. Additionally, a lack of significant insider buying raises red flags about management’s confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of continued growth from backlogged projects.

2) 30% chance of price stagnation due to market corrections.

3) 30% chance of a downturn from market overvaluation or sector slowdown.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying ATM calls (e.g., FIX 300.00 C) and selling slightly OTM calls (e.g., FIX 330.00 C) for the August expiry. This exploits high implied volatility while limiting downside, aiming for a significant profit if prices rise.


July 25, 2024


Comfort Systems USA Forecast

FIX      Comfort Systems USA











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FIX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.67)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FIX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.67)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FIX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.67)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)





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