FMC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: FMC could benefit from expanding markets and operational restructuring. The bullish risk is higher, indicating potential upward momentum supported by new product launches and strategic positioning.




Bearish Case: Price decline is possible due to legal uncertainties and low trading volume. High mean-reversion risk and increased put volume suggest bearish sentiment, impacting investor confidence.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Market expansion success: 45%
  • Regulatory/legal challenges: 30%
  • Mean-reverting decline: 25%




Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish short volatility play with a call credit spread: sell $62.5 call, buy $65 call. This aligns with current volatility trends and mean-reverting behavior, targeting a 52-day expiry. Expect a positive edge with high reward:risk.



January 29, 2025










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TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.68)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMC



GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (-0.0)


ABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABR  Arbor Realty (-0.0)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.0)


RXRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RXRX  Recursion Pharmaceuticals (0.01)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMC



NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (-0.45)


FREY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FREY  FREYR Battery (-0.47)


RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (-0.49)


PLBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLBY  PLBY (-0.52)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.54)









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