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FMC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: FMC's mean-reverting price action and global market expansion, particularly in emerging regions, support potential upside. Legal victories and restructuring could further boost investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Persisting legal issues and increased put trading volume indicate bearish sentiment. Continued regulatory challenges and underperformance pose significant downside risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Market stabilization and growth lead to recovery: 40%
  • Regulatory pressures cause decline: 35%
  • Continued mean reversion limits movement: 25%



Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish short volatility strategy. Sell a $37.5 put and buy $32.5 put with an expiration ~25 days out. Capitalize on mean reversion and manageable downside, aiming for 71% profit probability. This setup offers a high reward-to-risk ratio and aligns with flat term structure.


February 25, 2025











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IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (0.79)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (0.77)


PEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEP  Pepsico (0.76)


BC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BC  Brunswick (0.75)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMC


NWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NWL  Newell Brands (0.0)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (0.01)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (-0.01)


WNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WNS  WNS Holdings Limited (-0.01)


CPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPS  Cooper-Standard (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMC


VRSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRSK  Verisk Analytics (-0.62)


AMZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMZN  Amazon.com (-0.64)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.65)


CQP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CQP  Cheniere Energy (-0.67)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (-0.72)







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