Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: FMC could see an upside due to ongoing market expansion, especially in emerging sectors, coupled with potential legal victories that might restore investor confidence. The overall market volatility is reasonably low, suggesting stable conditions favoring growth.

Bearish Case: The ongoing legal uncertainties and potential regulatory pressures could negatively impact FMC's share price, especially if current downtrends continue. Historical volatility suggests a mean-reverting behavior that might push prices lower if negative news emerges.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of recovery and growth from early legal battles' favorable outcomes.

2. 30% likelihood of continued legal struggles leading to price declines.

3. 10% possibility of significant operational disruptions hampering core business.

Trading Oracle: Given the flat implied volatility trend and mean-reverting nature, implement a credit spread by selling the $60 put and buying the $55 put. This strategy aligns with current bullish sentiment and offers high probability while minimizing downside risk. Wait until near-term expiration for optimal returns.

November 05, 2024