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FMC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: FMC's mean-reverting price action and global market expansion, particularly in emerging regions, support potential upside. Legal victories and restructuring could further boost investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Persisting legal issues and increased put trading volume indicate bearish sentiment. Continued regulatory challenges and underperformance pose significant downside risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Market stabilization and growth lead to recovery: 40%
  • Regulatory pressures cause decline: 35%
  • Continued mean reversion limits movement: 25%



Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish short volatility strategy. Sell a $37.5 put and buy $32.5 put with an expiration ~25 days out. Capitalize on mean reversion and manageable downside, aiming for 71% profit probability. This setup offers a high reward-to-risk ratio and aligns with flat term structure.


February 25, 2025











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GIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIS  General Mills (0.72)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.7)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.68)


FXE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXE  Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (0.68)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMC


ABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABR  Arbor Realty (-0.0)


GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (-0.0)


VIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIR  Vir Biotechnology (0.0)


WVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WVE  Wave Life Sciences (-0.0)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMC


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.43)


NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (-0.45)


RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (-0.49)


CQP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CQP  Cheniere Energy (-0.54)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.54)







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