FMC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Operational restructuring may lead FMC to recover, benefiting from market expansion and technological innovation. Flat implied volatility could offer stability for potential upside.




Bearish Case: FMC faces significant legal and economic challenges, with low trading volumes and bearish sentiment indicated by high put activity. Volatility trends suggest potential for further decline. Helium




Potential Outcomes: Predict 40% chance of recovery from operational changes, 30% ongoing legal and economic challenges, and 30% volatility-driven decline due to mean-reverting patterns.




Trading Oracle: Focus on bearish short volatility strategies such as call credit spreads, considering an expiration around 52 days. This offers a high probability of profit (79%) with a positive edge, leveraging mean-reverting characteristics.



January 01, 2025










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Assets that tend to move strongly against FMC



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