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FRI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Lower interest rates and policy support point to REIT growth potential. Historical returns hint at gains with short holding periods for FRI.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent price declines reflect market concerns, suggesting further downside risk if economic conditions deteriorate.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of moderate gain (2-4%) as interest rates ease.

2. 40% likelihood of stagnation amid current volatility.

3. 30% chance of decline if market fears persist.

Trading Oracle: Consider a mean-reversion strategy with short straddles (selling both calls and puts) at $27 strike within two months. Attractive premiums capture high volatility, while mean-reverting behavior manages risk. Closely monitor for macroeconomic changes.

January 01, 2025

First Trust S&P REIT Index Forecast

FRI First Trust S&P REIT Index

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FRI

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.98)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.9)

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.87)

CBRE CBRE (0.87)

ICE Intercontinental Exchange (0.86)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FRI

SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics (0.02)

SKYT SkyWater Technology (-0.02)

IAC IAC InterActiveCorp. (0.02)

CWH Camping World (0.02)

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FRI

TRIP TripAdvisor (-0.78)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.78)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.79)

RILY B. Riley Financial (-0.79)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.79)

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