FRI Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Low implied volatility and historical positive returns suggest potential modest gains. Economic stabilization and increased REIT demand could drive price appreciation.




Bearish Case: Elevated implied volatility and recent price declines highlight market concerns. Economic uncertainties, like rising interest rates, could lead to further downside risks.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 35% chance of a 2-4% price increase due to historical return trends.
  • 30% probability of price stagnation amid current volatility.
  • 35% likelihood of a 3-5% decline from economic pressures.



April 17, 2025


First Trust S&P REIT Index Forecast

FRI        First Trust S&P REIT Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FRI



SPYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYD  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend (0.95)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (0.88)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (0.86)


BIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIP  Brookfield Infrastructure (0.86)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FRI



ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (-0.0)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (0.0)


RPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPD  Rapid7 (-0.01)


TTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTI  Tetra Technologies (0.01)


LYFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYFT  Lyft (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FRI



ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.64)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (-0.64)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.69)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.7)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.84)









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