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Bullish Case: Global Blue (GB) benefits from continued recovery in tax-free shopping, especially from Asian markets, while blue ammonia growth could drive future expansions, potentially lifting prices significantly.

Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges, ongoing controversies, and market volatility could reverse current positive trends, leading to a decline in investor confidence and subsequent price drops.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory changes impacting operations (30% chance).

2. Sustained Olympic momentum boosting sales (25% chance).

3. Market sentiment shifts due to controversies (20% chance).

4. Blue ammonia market growth influencing investor interest (15% chance).

5. Economic downturn affecting luxury spending (10% chance).

Trading Oracle: Given the current high implied volatility, initiate a bullish debit spread using a long call on GB 5.00 C 09/20/2024 to capitalize on upward price potential, while maintaining hedging through a short call at 7.50. This strategy provides high reward/risk and aligns with potential price recovery. Time outlook: 1-2 month horizon.

August 17, 2024